Well its been a busy few weeks for me to say the least.
I have successfully moved, though as always there are boxes that remain unpacked and I suspect that they will remain that way for the foreseeable future. And more importantly I have been reconnected with the wonder that is known as the world wide web.
Due to the lack of time I have not done anything apart from keep up reading the blogs on my reading list over there >>>>. And there is a series of posts coming from SoccerDude over at A Football Traders Path about compiling match odds which is something that every-one should read. Even if you know it all then it's worth a read to top up your knowledge or to help out if (though I imagine it's highly unlikely), something in the post is wrong. But anyway go and read them.
In my last couple of posts I mentioned that my spreadsheet that works out my picks was slightly, nay right royally screwed, so I have decided to go back and re do it. That is still where I am and it's where I shall continue from for now.
Wednesday, February 15, 2012
Monday, January 30, 2012
Busy Busy Bee
Busy times for me currently, meaning I have not been able to spend much time at all doing what needs to be done with regards to gambling. You see, we are busy packing bits and pieces, tidying this and that and fixing the odd occasional thing in preparation for our move next week.
That's right next week I am moving house, into a house that we can finally call our own, as it is a house that we are buying.
So understandably all gambling related things are temporarilly on hold. I have tried a couple of times to go and correct the errors in my spreadsheets but I keep failing. You know its a bad sign if you cannot get your head around a simple idea/concept, so rather than continue and maybe break them even more I have decided to temporarilly put it on hold untill I can get a little time where my head is with it.
When I get time I do intend to continue with my endeavour, though time may be a luxury I currently may not find.
That's right next week I am moving house, into a house that we can finally call our own, as it is a house that we are buying.
So understandably all gambling related things are temporarilly on hold. I have tried a couple of times to go and correct the errors in my spreadsheets but I keep failing. You know its a bad sign if you cannot get your head around a simple idea/concept, so rather than continue and maybe break them even more I have decided to temporarilly put it on hold untill I can get a little time where my head is with it.
When I get time I do intend to continue with my endeavour, though time may be a luxury I currently may not find.
Sunday, January 22, 2012
Strike Two
Just a quick update.
Well yet again my systems have let me down, or should I say that I have let myself down.
I am sure that the eagle eyed amongst you have noticed the errors on my last selections. Fulham Vs Newcastle and I am betting on Liverpool! Eh.
Its the kind of silly things that would be noticed straight away if I was actually putting real money on these picks. But instead I am left with egg on my face yet again. Though as mentioned before I am not too bothered about it as I am working systems out and setting up spreadsheets.
Well yet again my systems have let me down, or should I say that I have let myself down.
I am sure that the eagle eyed amongst you have noticed the errors on my last selections. Fulham Vs Newcastle and I am betting on Liverpool! Eh.
Its the kind of silly things that would be noticed straight away if I was actually putting real money on these picks. But instead I am left with egg on my face yet again. Though as mentioned before I am not too bothered about it as I am working systems out and setting up spreadsheets.
Thursday, January 19, 2012
Picks
| A few posts ago (here) I asked for a bit of help from my fellow bloggers out there regarding Elo and Poisson. I had a comment from GamblingGeek which resulted in a little email conversation, I must say it was helpful indeed. After reading what GamblingGeek sent me I did understand it better than I ever had done before. Until today, that is when I happen across an excellent post by SoccerDude that literally cements it in my mind, well it's bookmarked for future reference. And I am also adding a Link to his Blog over there on the right. Looking forward to reading some-more of his ".... For Dummies" posts. Keep It Up! My picks for this weekend are below, this time they appear to be correct, yet I may well be missing something that's staring me in the face. Alpha |
| Norwich City V Chelsea, bet £5 on Chelsea at odds of 1.62 to return £8.1 a profit of £3.1 |
| Everton V Blackburn Rovers , bet £9 on Everton at odds of 1.57 to return £14.13 a profit of £5.13 |
| Fulham V Newcastle United , bet £6 on Liverpool at odds of 4 to return £24 a profit of £18 |
| Queens Park Rangers V Wigan Athletic , bet £2 on Wolves at odds of 2.05 to return £4.1 a profit of £2.1 |
| Stoke City V West Bromwich Albion , bet £2 on Stoke at odds of 1.95 to return £3.9 a profit of £1.9 |
| Bravo |
| Norwich City V Chelsea, bet £5 on The Draw at odds of 4.2 to return £21 a profit of £16 |
| Everton V Blackburn Rovers , bet £9 on The Draw at odds of 4 to return £36 a profit of £27 |
| Fulham V Newcastle United , bet £6 on The Draw at odds of 3.5 to return £21 a profit of £15 |
| Queens Park Rangers V Wigan Athletic , bet £2 on The Draw at odds of 3.4 to return £6.8 a profit of £4.8 |
| Stoke City V West Bromwich Albion , bet £2 on The Draw at odds of 3.5 to return £7 a profit of £5 |
| Dand |
| Norwich City V Chelsea, bet £5 on Norwich at odds of 6 to return £30 a profit of £25 |
| Everton V Blackburn Rovers , bet £9 on Wigan at odds of 7 to return £63 a profit of £54 |
| Fulham V Newcastle United , bet £6 on Aston Villa at odds of 2.05 to return £12.3 a profit of £6.3 |
| Queens Park Rangers V Wigan Athletic , bet £2 on QPR at odds of 4.2 to return £8.4 a profit of £6.4 |
| Stoke City V West Bromwich Albion , bet £2 on Swansea at odds of 4.33 to return £8.66 a profit of £6.66 |
Sunday, January 15, 2012
Betting Blog Banter
Tonight I am Introducing the Betting Blog Banter.
The Betting Blog Banter aims to be a collection of posts from different bloggers all discussing the same topic or question from differing perspectives. I know I have seen a post on one blog discussing a topic and then I have came across a blog days later discussing the same topic just by chance. Well, no more, there will be a dedicated page listing all blogs and posts discussing the same topic.
What Do I Need To Do To Join?
Simple. Just send me a message in the form of an email and I will add you to the list.
Who Will Chose The Questions?
All members of the BBB can submit topics or questions to me and I will randomly select one. The questions or topics need to come from you guys as I can't think of them all.
So I Have The Topic What Next
Once you receive the topic or question for discussion then you need to write a post about it. You must include at the top the question in full and a link to the author of the topics blog. At the end of your post you should include a link to the list of Blog Banter posts on my page.
When can I publish My Post?
This will take a bit of trial and error. I will create a page when I mail out the question or topic that I will set up to be posted on a friday. When you have written your post send me the title of the post and a link to it and also set it up to be published on the friday. In theory my post shall automatically publish on a friday with working links to your automatically published posts. I say hopefully.
Who Can Join?
Anyone! Just mail me and I will include you on the next BB.
I aim for this to be enjoyable and to provoke civil discussion, I don't want it to feel like a chore to the members. If you don't have an opinion that will fill a post then comment on some ones blog. You don't have to commit to a post on every subject, I for one can't really say anything much about trading for example.
I don't know if there will actually be enough topics to discuss but we will see. I suppose we could discuss something else if topics start to dry out.
So comment your interest and drop me an email at bubblesbrian@gmail.com
Sent from my BlackBerry® wireless device
Saturday, January 14, 2012
What A Right Royal Cock Up!!!!
Damn It, F%^&K It and all the rest.
Just been to update my predictions to see where I stand and oh boy. My selections were wrong and screwed. For some reason my SS is showing that team is playing that team when the teams I selected are correct yet I was told to pick a team that didn't exist or should I say playing a team that they are not playing and I didn't notice.
I'm glad that I am currently paper trading these systems as this is the time that I need to iron out all the problems that I come across. I admit that it's a bit embarrassing that my issues and problems are here for the whole world to see, yet that is the point of this blog. To show the journey that some-one with no knowledge of the betting world can progress to either a point where it's not worth continuing or getting to a point where I am regularly making a profit. Showing all my ups and downs, and my process to overcome any problems encountered.
It's annoying as hell for certain, but it's mistakes that I NEED to learn in order to better myself. I will still continue to pick bets as I have been, as a way of picking up on any issues, and go from there. I now think that the next season will be when I start going for real. As it may not be worth it to play for real with only a few games left or just under half a season.
Brian
Just been to update my predictions to see where I stand and oh boy. My selections were wrong and screwed. For some reason my SS is showing that team is playing that team when the teams I selected are correct yet I was told to pick a team that didn't exist or should I say playing a team that they are not playing and I didn't notice.
I'm glad that I am currently paper trading these systems as this is the time that I need to iron out all the problems that I come across. I admit that it's a bit embarrassing that my issues and problems are here for the whole world to see, yet that is the point of this blog. To show the journey that some-one with no knowledge of the betting world can progress to either a point where it's not worth continuing or getting to a point where I am regularly making a profit. Showing all my ups and downs, and my process to overcome any problems encountered.
It's annoying as hell for certain, but it's mistakes that I NEED to learn in order to better myself. I will still continue to pick bets as I have been, as a way of picking up on any issues, and go from there. I now think that the next season will be when I start going for real. As it may not be worth it to play for real with only a few games left or just under half a season.
Brian
Friday, January 13, 2012
Weekend Picks 13th Jan 2011
Well its been a busy week for me, but here are my picks for this weekend.
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| Let's see how things go for this week hey. Be nice to see another result for the system like two weeks ago. Just a crying shame there was no real money on it but hey live and learn hey. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday, January 11, 2012
Help?
Well I think I now need some help and advice from readers of this blog, yes I do have some :-).
I am trying to work out how to do Elo and Poisson spreadsheets. Now I have been searching high and low and have yet to come across something that explains in plain english how to actually work it out. I was never any good at math at school and a screen full of symbols just makes my head hurt.
Elo
This one is easy enough as there is information out there on how to do it and its straight forward and easy. Though I have only one question. Now you may chuckle when you hear it, I think I know the answer but I'm just confirming the fact before I go through my sheet and spend ages working all the ratings out. Right here goes.. If the game finishes in a draw then goal difference is obviously 0. Now then I believe that the ratings for the teams don't change.
Poisson
This is the trouble maker, I can't find anything that I can actually understand. As soon as I get to the formula section my mind goes into mental shutdown thanks to all the scribbles. Has anyone got a link to anywhere that helped you work it out?
Sent from my BlackBerry® wireless device
I am trying to work out how to do Elo and Poisson spreadsheets. Now I have been searching high and low and have yet to come across something that explains in plain english how to actually work it out. I was never any good at math at school and a screen full of symbols just makes my head hurt.
Elo
This one is easy enough as there is information out there on how to do it and its straight forward and easy. Though I have only one question. Now you may chuckle when you hear it, I think I know the answer but I'm just confirming the fact before I go through my sheet and spend ages working all the ratings out. Right here goes.. If the game finishes in a draw then goal difference is obviously 0. Now then I believe that the ratings for the teams don't change.
Poisson
This is the trouble maker, I can't find anything that I can actually understand. As soon as I get to the formula section my mind goes into mental shutdown thanks to all the scribbles. Has anyone got a link to anywhere that helped you work it out?
Sent from my BlackBerry® wireless device
Slogging On
Ah the joys of making your own spreadsheet hey.
I have been busy over the last few days starting to work out and plan how to do an Elo rating system. It took a while to figure it out but I got there in the end.
So I figured okay then lets go and start from the beginning of this season and start and see where we are today. Within the first minute I ran into a brick wall!! Smack!! My season stats sheet that I believed was ready to go was/is broke. I don't mean just change a value here and there, I mean a complete rethink and new sheet. Needless to say I wasn't a happy bunny and I have just spent the last 4 hours re-working my layout and calculations. Oh and I am still not done.
I am enjoying the challenge though so it's not all bad really, it's just an annoyance having to redo something that I believed was done. When I think about it I realise how much time I have spent on just this one sheet it comes out at quite a good few hours. Now this is before I go back and put in this seasons stats, so it's all just layout, calculations and manipulating the data into a readable form instead of a jumble of numbers.
On I roll.
I have been keeping an eye on the odds movement of games and so far there has been little movements in most if not all of this coming Saturdays game. I will do a post later in the week with the results of this little project.
I have been busy over the last few days starting to work out and plan how to do an Elo rating system. It took a while to figure it out but I got there in the end.
So I figured okay then lets go and start from the beginning of this season and start and see where we are today. Within the first minute I ran into a brick wall!! Smack!! My season stats sheet that I believed was ready to go was/is broke. I don't mean just change a value here and there, I mean a complete rethink and new sheet. Needless to say I wasn't a happy bunny and I have just spent the last 4 hours re-working my layout and calculations. Oh and I am still not done.
I am enjoying the challenge though so it's not all bad really, it's just an annoyance having to redo something that I believed was done. When I think about it I realise how much time I have spent on just this one sheet it comes out at quite a good few hours. Now this is before I go back and put in this seasons stats, so it's all just layout, calculations and manipulating the data into a readable form instead of a jumble of numbers.
On I roll.
I have been keeping an eye on the odds movement of games and so far there has been little movements in most if not all of this coming Saturdays game. I will do a post later in the week with the results of this little project.
Monday, January 9, 2012
Odds History
One of my last posts on my old blog was regarding odds.
More specifically when is it better to actually place your bet to get the best odds. Now this may just be a matter of opinion or it may just be pure luck. How many times have people placed a bet just to see the odds lengthen and see potential profit lost. This works the other way too, the odds may shorten to reduce loses.
You can place a bet on a Monday at lets say 1.50 and come Saturday morning and the odds lengthen to 2.50, that's probably a lot of profit lost if the bet actually wins. I know that some sites offer Best Odds Guaranteed, and as I understand it that means you will get the odds of 2.50 even if you placed your bet at 1.50. Yet as I am a newbie I don't know which sites actually do this or if this is actually the case. And I think that its only on certain matches.
To this end I have decided that I will keep an eye on the odds movements and see if there is a best time to place the bets.
On a previous post I also mentioned looking at some new systems, I do remember looking at a forum post somewhere that deals with making a Poisson spreadsheet in Excel and yet now for the life of me I cannot find anything that actually helps or shows me how to do it.
Now Elo on the other hand is different. There is a wealth of information out there on many sites, that is helpful for me, so my next system will be an Elo ratings system. I am currently not entirely sure how I use the ratings but I'm sure that with more reading and research I will find the answer.
More specifically when is it better to actually place your bet to get the best odds. Now this may just be a matter of opinion or it may just be pure luck. How many times have people placed a bet just to see the odds lengthen and see potential profit lost. This works the other way too, the odds may shorten to reduce loses.
You can place a bet on a Monday at lets say 1.50 and come Saturday morning and the odds lengthen to 2.50, that's probably a lot of profit lost if the bet actually wins. I know that some sites offer Best Odds Guaranteed, and as I understand it that means you will get the odds of 2.50 even if you placed your bet at 1.50. Yet as I am a newbie I don't know which sites actually do this or if this is actually the case. And I think that its only on certain matches.
To this end I have decided that I will keep an eye on the odds movements and see if there is a best time to place the bets.
On a previous post I also mentioned looking at some new systems, I do remember looking at a forum post somewhere that deals with making a Poisson spreadsheet in Excel and yet now for the life of me I cannot find anything that actually helps or shows me how to do it.
Now Elo on the other hand is different. There is a wealth of information out there on many sites, that is helpful for me, so my next system will be an Elo ratings system. I am currently not entirely sure how I use the ratings but I'm sure that with more reading and research I will find the answer.
Welcome
Welcome to my new home!
I have decided to make the transition to Blogger, (obvious right!). I have been using WordPress since I began on my journey not so long ago. After using it for a while I decided that I didn't like the look of it and the lack of customization available.
I write most of my posts on my BlackBerry and having a WordPress app was the main point for me to actually start using that site, now there is no such app (at the moment at least, please make one) for Blogger yet I can email my posts to the site and edit them before posting.
So if you have me bookmarked or on your blogroll then please update your links and point them here.
If you have just stumbled upon this blog then read the beginning of my story here. I will leave that blog up for a while, in fact I may just leave it there permanently.
Another thing you may notice is that my name has changed, I can assure you that I am the same person. Not long after I first started Cassini wrote a little about my blog (here), I would like to draw your attention to this little excerpt...
I have decided to make the transition to Blogger, (obvious right!). I have been using WordPress since I began on my journey not so long ago. After using it for a while I decided that I didn't like the look of it and the lack of customization available.
I write most of my posts on my BlackBerry and having a WordPress app was the main point for me to actually start using that site, now there is no such app (at the moment at least, please make one) for Blogger yet I can email my posts to the site and edit them before posting.
So if you have me bookmarked or on your blogroll then please update your links and point them here.
If you have just stumbled upon this blog then read the beginning of my story here. I will leave that blog up for a while, in fact I may just leave it there permanently.
Another thing you may notice is that my name has changed, I can assure you that I am the same person. Not long after I first started Cassini wrote a little about my blog (here), I would like to draw your attention to this little excerpt...
".....and I have one suggestion for Bubbles (aside from adopting a more
masculine name - you ever been to a West Ham game?) which is to read this post!Actually, having just read a little more, I have some further suggestions."
And as I replied in my own post (here) it is a combination of my sons first nickname "Bubbles" (for a couple of days anyway, because he kept on blowing bubbles) and his middle name "Brian" , my deceased fathers name. Now I have decided to just stick with Brian, simply because it is simple and easy and I'm hoping people will take me more seriously now.
As this is a new blog I am trying out different colour schemes to see what I like, so "don't adjusts your sets" if the colours go all weird on you.
As this is a new blog I am trying out different colour schemes to see what I like, so "don't adjusts your sets" if the colours go all weird on you.
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